Kimpact Development Initiative’s (KDI’s) Post ElectionStatement on the 2024 Edo State Off-Cycle GovernorshipElection.

Kimpact Development Initiative, Election Day Data Room. Addressing Electoral Challenges: Assessing Electoral Security Accountability and Ballot Integrity in the 2024 Edo Governorship Election.
Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI), is pleased to present its post-election
assessment of the Edo State off-cycle governorship elections held on
September 21, 2024. As part of our mandate to support the integrity and
security of electoral processes, we focused on four core areas during this
election: election violence monitoring and mitigation, ballot integrity,
campaign finance oversight, and the utilization of artificial intelligence to
enhance democratic knowledge.
On September 20, 2024, KDI activated its Election Day Data Room (EDDR),
which functioned as the central hub for gathering, analyzing, and reporting
real-time information from the field. The EDDR ensured that data from our
deployed observers was carefully reviewed, verified, and processed to offer
immediate insights to election management bodies (EMBs) and stakeholders,
facilitating prompt responses to emerging issues. On Election Day- 21st
September, KDI deployed 431 trained observers across Edo’s 18 LGAs and 192
wards. These observers provided live updates on electoral incidents, the
conduct of election officials, ballot integrity, and security-related issues. Their
reports provide a comprehensive picture of the election environment.
This statement is a follow up on the preliminary statement issued at 1.30 pm on Saturday,
September 21s

KDI in its preliminary statement on the election day identified several key issues
impacting the electoral process. One of the most significant challenges was the late
arrival of election materials, particularly in rural areas, which led to delays in the
commencement of voting. These logistical setbacks were compounded by adverse
weather conditions, such as rainfall in parts of Esan West, Esan Southeast, and Owan
West, which disrupted the transportation of materials and affected voter turnout in
some areas.
KDI also raised concerns about the widespread occurrence of vote buying. This was
observed across all three senatorial districts, with inducements ranging from ₦1,000 to
₦10,000 in cash and material incentives, undermining the credibility of the election.
This post-election statement seeks to further update the public and key stakeholders
on KDI’s key findings and observations regarding the election day processes.
KEY OBSERVATIONS/FINDINGS:
Firstly, the 2024 Edo governorship election showcased a wide range of electoral
experiences, with some aspects being commendable, others raising concerns, and a
few being outright alarming.
On the positive side, we commend the relative peace that charaterized the election
day, despite the palpable tension that marked the pre-election phase. We believe
this was allowed by the Edo citizens and reinforced by the relative adequacy in
policing structure and professionalism of security personnel to allow movement of
essential workers in most of the LGAs. There were few reports of shortage of security
personnel in certain polling units – such as Ward 4: PU 9 but the security agencies
upon getting this information sent reinforcements at 11:00 am. Even though there
were few acts of violence and disruption of polls in Esan Central, Ovia Southwest and
collation centers in Oredo, Egor, and Ikpoba-Okha LGAs. It is noteworthy to state
that there were no fatalities recorded in this election.
There were noticeable improvements in the functionality of BVAS in the election –
even though the KDI Election Day Data Room report shows a few cases of BVAS
malfunctioning on election day. Report showed that most of these malfunctioned
BVAS were due to technical issues; we also got a meagre report of ad-hoc officers
not having password details as of when they got to their PUs and about to
commence the process.
We commend the functionality of IReV and the swiftness of PU results upload on to
the platform – KDI EDDR noted that as of 19:22 WAT, 92% of the expected PU results
had been uploaded on IReV. This is an improvement compared to other elections.
KDI Post Election Statement on the 2024
Edo State Off-Cycle Governorship Election.
2
There were issues that signals a Potential for Violence which raised concerns as to the
preparedness of INEC. Some of these include:
Late commencement of polls resulting from planning and logistical challenges:
The issue of logistics is one of the perennial challenges that has plagued the electoral
process in Nigeria and the 2024 Edo governorship elections was no different. The Edo
election was hindered by insufficient preparations for the in-season rains and
inadequate transport preparations, resulting in delayed departures of INEC ad-hoc
workers from some Registration Area Centres (RACs) to polling units. This
automatically led to late arrival of election materials in some places. KDI in page 41 of
her pre-Election Security Risk Assessment (ESRA) using Accuweather predicted that
Edo state will be mainly cloudy with showers and a 40% probability of precipitation,
with 2 hours of rain. This information was publicized and communicated to INEC
through different media and the quarterly consultative forums. Yet, it appears no
adequate preparation was made for this by INEC in its contingency planning, leading
to halting of the voting process in some areas (Esan NorthEast, Esan Central, Estako
Central and Igueben), Certain PUs were unable to continue accreditation in (IkpobaOkha, Egor, Uhunmwonde, Oredo, Ovia Northeast) whilst others voted under the rain
in Uhunmwode and Esan Central. We believe that INEC needs to conduct a ballot
paper audit to ascertain if rain on the election day affected the ballot papers in areas
where it was raining and voting was going on at the same time – this is needed
considering the high number (13,275) of rejected votes which is a 3.43% increase from
the rejected votes (12,835) of the 2020 governorship elections in the state. We believe
this lesson will help to prevent such in future elections.
Vote Trading – A Persistent Challenge: Despite our earlier warning about the ongoing
issue of vote trading, KDI has observed that little was done to curb or abate this
widespread electoral malpractice which is now pervasive in Nigeria’s electoral space.
Politicians continue to refine their approaches to votebuying, with vote trading
transpiring both plainly and discreetly during the 2024 Edo State Governorship
election day across all local government areas of the state. In Ward 7, PU 9 -Aiyegunle,
by Chief Aliu’s Compund (Akoko Edo LGA), money was exchanged openly, with reports
of a political party distributing N10,000 to voters without restraint. In Ward 12
(Orhionmwon LGA), vote trading was blatant, with APC and PDP engaging in this
practice—buying votes with a minimum fee of ₦5,000 and as high as ₦10,000. In Ward
7, PU 16 (Esan West LGA), political parties were said to have paid up to ₦12,000 to
voters.
KDI Post Election Statement on the 2024
Edo State Off-Cycle Governorship Election.
3
KDI’s EDDR recorded isolated actions taken by security agents to deter vote trading.
For instance, officers of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC)
arrested a vote buyer in Ward 5, PU 37 (Oredo LGA), and some political party supporters
were apprehended in Ikpoba Okha LGA for engaging in vote buying. In Iguobazuwa
East, PU 11 (Ovia South West LGA), security personnel were called in to resolve a dispute
over allegations that a political party supporters was distributing ₦5,000 per vote.
More egregious cases of vote trading were documented in Ward 1, PU 9 (Ovia South
West LGA), where vote buying occurred, and in Ward 6, PU 6 (Ovia North East LGA),
which saw a well organized vote trading. Blatant instances were recorded in Ward 5,
PU 18 & 19, as well as Ward 6, PU 14 of Ovia Southwest. Ikpoba Okha LGA saw
widespread vote trading, with party agents offering refreshments and distributing
materials such as pasta to sway voters. Several other incidents of vote trading were
recorded across Uhunmwonde, where voters were paid as little as ₦1,000 in some
polling units, indicating the pervasive nature of this problem. These developments
underscore the ongoing challenge of vote trading in Nigerian elections, threatening
the integrity of the electoral process
Issues around Permanent Voter Cards (PVC): There were pockets of reports where
some individuals presented PVCs which was not theirs, raising concerns about the
security of electoral materials as sensitive as PVCs. For instance, in Ward 3, PU 18 of
Akoko Edo LGA, an individual attempted to vote with another person’s PVC. This
was quickly noticed by other voters who identified that the individual was not
registered at the polling unit. The situation almost escalated into a disruption of the
voting process, but security agents intervened and resolved the issue. Similarly, in
Ward 4, PU 8 of Orhionmwon LGA, voters reported that unfamiliar faces with voter
cards were being allowed to vote by INEC officials. These voters were suspected of
bearing fake voter cards, as they were permitted to vote without undergoing the
required BVAS biometric verification. These instances highlight the need for stricter
adherence to voter identification procedures to maintain the credibility of the
election process. While these represent isolated instances, they raise significant
concerns, particularly given the Nigeria Police Force’s assertion that only six
individuals were arrested on election day, alongside the troubling discovery of
multiple PVCs in the possession of these persons. This indicates that it must be
addressed without delay before it evolves into a prevalent political tactic to
undermine the will of the people.
KDI Post Election Statement on the 2024
Edo State Off-Cycle Governorship Election.
4
INCIDENCE OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE
During the Edo State off-cycle governorship elections, KDI received over 1,247 reports
via calls and messages through its EDDR, with 17 of these reports directly involving
incidents of electoral violence. Among the most notable cases was ballot box
snatching, particularly in Ward 10, PU 7 of Etsako Central, where a suspected political
party supporter allegedly seized a ballot box upon realizing that his party was likely to
lose. Additional reports of ballot box snatching surfaced in Egor LGA. Such actions do
not only disrupt the electoral proceedings but also undermine the democratic rights of
voters, necessitating immediate investigations and enhanced security measures to
prevent future occurrences.
KDI also documented multiple cases of voter intimidation and harassment. In Ward 11,
PUs 5 and 6 of Etsako West LGA, political party agents were reported to have pressured
voters into casting ballots in their favor, while a political actors in Ward 11, PU 34 of
Oredo LGA threatened voters to support his preferred party, nearly derailing the voting
process before being apprehended by security agents. Furthermore, in Ward 1, PU 2 of
Egor LGA, security agents were reportedly complicit in intimidating election observers
alongside political party agents. Other reports highlighted disruptions by party agents
attempting to influence voters, leading to confrontations, such as the scuffle between
PDP and APC agents in Ward 4, PU 3 of Akoko Edo. These incidents underscore the
urgent need for stricter enforcement of electoral laws and the pivotal role of security
agents in safeguarding the integrity of the voting process.
KDI’S POSITION ON THE BALLOT INTEGRITY
On Sunday, September 22, 2024, KDI completed an analysis of the data uploaded to the
IReV, using the Ballot Integrity Project (BIP) methodology. With a margin of error of
±2%, our findings raise critical concerns regarding the integrity of the result
management process in the election.
Firstly, KDI has consistently noted with concern the long-standing issues in Nigeria’s
result collation process, which remains susceptible to human error and system failures.
We are deeply concerned about the usual rituals at the collation centers, where
stakeholders’ frequently raised concerns, are often met with the standard response:
“Point noted”. No administrative steps are taken to assess the merit or demerit of these
concerns. This has been an observable trend from previous elections and the election in
Edo State, despite Section 65 of the Electoral Act empowering INEC to review election
results within seven days of their announcement. Additionally, INEC’s own 2022
Guidelines and Regulations for the Conduct of Elections (Section 99) expounds this
administrative power.
KDI Post Election Statement on the 2024
Edo State Off-Cycle Governorship Election.
5
Our BIP analysis shows a 6.04% inflation in the results declared by INEC. Ideally, results
should either decrease during the collation process—due to cancellations prompted by
issues like violence or BVAS bypasses—or remain consistent if no such cancellations
occurred. However, we noticed an increase or addition in the number of votes in some
collation centers. This discrepancy casts serious doubt on the transparency and
credibility of the collation process.
Moreover, while all 18 LGA Returning Officers and Electoral Officers (EOs) reported no
cancellations during the state-level collation, our analysis shows that at least 22 polling
units had Form EC40G uploaded on IReV, indicating disruptions or BVAS-related
issues. The Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) collected in these polling units exceed the
margin of lead based on the IReV-collated results, raising concerns about the accuracy
of the declared outcome. This indicates a high likelihood of a supplementary election in
the 2024 Edo state governorship elections if PU results on IREV were consistent with
what was declared.
Additionally, INEC stated that 604,132 voters were accredited, yielding 570,690 valid
votes and 13,275 rejected ballots, resulting in a total of 583,965 votes cast. This leads to a
discrepancy of 20,167 accredited voters whose votes were omitted from both the valid
and rejected vote classifications. If no votes were cancelled, as reported by INEC
returning officials from LGAs, this raises a pertinent question: Where are the 20,167
missing votes?
Finally, regarding result management, we urge INEC to thoroughly examine the quality
of training provided to the adhoc staff and to investigate any potential instances of
sabotage within the process. An examination of Form EC8A on IREV reveals distinct
instances of overvoting in more than 300 polling units across 14 local government
areas. There are instances in which the number of voters exceeded the total number of
accredited voters. We urge INEC to investigate whether these discrepancies were
intentional or merely arithmetic errors made by the polling officials.
CONCLUSION
Using predictive modeling, KDI projected voter turnout to range between 20% and
24%, with a lower margin of lead in comparison to the 2020 gubernatorial election and
considering the current electoral climate. The actual turnout of 22.4% aligns with our
forecast, as does the reduced margin of lead, which fell to 44,393 from the 84,336
recorded in the 2020 gubernatorial election.